Development of adaptable pandemic simulation models
KL Tsui1, SY Wong1, JT Wu2,
CB Chow3, DM Goldsman4, A Nizam5
1 Department of Systems Engineering and
Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong
2 School of Public Health, The
University of Hong Kong
3 Infectious Disease Centre, Hospital
Authority
4 School of Industrial and Systems
Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
5 Department of Biostatistics and
Bioinformatics, Emory University, USA
1. A pandemic simulation programme was developed
with three components: an adaptable population generator that creates
synthetic populations with various structures; a disease simulator that
handles combinations of reactive intervention strategies; and a user
interface that offers flexible input and graphical output for analysis.
2. Simulation experiments of different reactive strategy combinations were carried out over the regional synthetic populations.
3. The effectiveness of various practical schooling strategies under a realistic demographic situation and movement dynamics were modelled. Limiting contact amongst students in more schools can reduce the overall attack rate. Increasing the duration of school closures can reduce the overall infection attack rate.
2. Simulation experiments of different reactive strategy combinations were carried out over the regional synthetic populations.
3. The effectiveness of various practical schooling strategies under a realistic demographic situation and movement dynamics were modelled. Limiting contact amongst students in more schools can reduce the overall attack rate. Increasing the duration of school closures can reduce the overall infection attack rate.