Development of adaptable pandemic simulation models
KL Tsui1, SY Wong1, JT Wu2, CB Chow3, DM Goldsman4, A Nizam5
1 Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong
2 School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong
3 Infectious Disease Centre, Hospital Authority
4 School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
5 Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, USA
1. A pandemic simulation programme was developed with three components: an adaptable population generator that creates synthetic populations with various structures; a disease simulator that handles combinations of reactive intervention strategies; and a user interface that offers flexible input and graphical output for analysis.
2. Simulation experiments of different reactive strategy combinations were carried out over the regional synthetic populations.
3. The effectiveness of various practical schooling strategies under a realistic demographic situation and movement dynamics were modelled. Limiting contact amongst students in more schools can reduce the overall attack rate. Increasing the duration of school closures can reduce the overall infection attack rate.