Hong Kong Med J 2025;31(Suppl 4):S42-6
Nowcasting COVID-19 transmission dynamics, severity, and effectiveness of control measures: abridged secondary publication
BJ Cowling, P Wu, JT Wu
School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
 
 
  1. Our model yielded unbiased estimates of the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19 cases by accounting for differences in infectiousness between local and imported cases.
  2. The case fatality risk of COVID-19 increased with age in 2020 in Hong Kong.
  3. Incorporation of changes over time in the serial interval distribution enabled more accurate estimation of the reproductive number.